Terminator, SKYNET and modern warfare (and Battery life?)

General Discussions
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I think one thing we’re ignoring and not discussing is…money. Since, I live in the USA, obviously I’m biased in my posts to the USA.

https://www.usdebtclock.org

Note the DOGE and “Future Tariff Tax Revenue” counters. Those are new entries and notice how slow they tick upwards.

The USA spends exorbitant amounts of money. Each day on national news TV (ABC), there are severe storms that damage, destroy, flood, and ruin entire lives, homes, towns, cities, etc. with tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, snow, ice, etc. It’s like the USA can’t save money because it has to spend so much just to keep things working, life running, and fixing things.

That is why programs such as the USAF’s E-7 “Wedgetail” got canceled by the Pentagon. What was once an AEW&C MESA radar plane that cost around $550 million now costs around $700+ million each…and it’s delayed in delivering. When the Pentagon needs to pinch $200+ million from each E-7 to pay for the stealthy F-47 and more non-stealthy F-15EXs, that’s saying something because the “Federal Tax Revenue” isn’t ticking upwards fast enough compared to the amount of money the US federal government is spending…and the US government is bankrupt and its Global Credit Rating got decreased from “Trustworthy.”

Based on recent data from the IRS, the voluntary compliance rate (VCR) for US taxpayers is around 85% . This rate reflects the percentage of taxes that are paid voluntarily and on time. --Google AI

That’s a very good citizen return rate for a large country like the USA, but there is still 15% of the population who don’t file their taxes, and thus don’t contribute to the “Federal Tax Revenue” ticker counter.

All Defense spending requires money, and if AI can make weapons, robots, drones, cyber-hack, etc. better and cheaper, then AI is a very dangerous weapon itself.

“60 Minutes” years ago said that the USA, unlike other foreign nations, does not cyber-hack for money…it cyber-hacks for foreign secrets and information. I suppose if the USA cyber-hacks foreign nations for money and drains their treasury, then that nation’s people risk starvation, and it will be very hard and dangerous for US charities and Food Aid to help those hacked-and-starving nations—a “double or quadruple-edged sword” which would be a sword or a chisel, depending on how you look at it.

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82

Of course! Businesses will automate whenever possible. There are many reasons why businesses are automating. It actually falls under the category of economics rather than technology itself. As you mentioned elsewhere, politics could have a role, but I think it isn’t for what you thought.

Here’s an example, and I’m not trying to take a side. You got a politician somewhere who promises that if you vote for him, he will raise the minimum wage. Thats a good idea. Who could be against giving people in entry level jobs a little more money? Well, unfortunately there are unintended consequences and we are seeing it every day. So the politician gets elected and mandates a hike in minimum wages. Then what happens? The restaurant owner has to pay more money to his minimum wage employees. This cuts into his profit margin, and if his profit margin wasn’t high to begin with, he might not have a profit margin at all. Without that profit margin, he isn’t making money and it’s probably not worth running a business. The options he has to regaining a profit can either be fire an employee, or more and have the others make up for the shortage or automate. In some areas of the country, we can walk into a McDonalds and they will have an automated French fry machine. It runs all day making French fries with very little human intervention. This isn’t because people do not want the job, it’s because the employer can’t afford to pay these employees in states that have high minimum wage requirements. The French fry machine isn’t cheap either, but it’s cheaper to operate and it doesn’t take breaks, surf the internet while on the clock or demand a raise.

Then you have politicians who promise to extend unemployment benefits. So what happens? You’ve incentivized people not to work. They stay home and collect their unemployment checks and play video games all day. So then you have other employers who can’t fill their positions. If they want to stay in business they need to automate to make up for the shortage in employees.

Right now, I work for a company and despite the raises and benefits they offer, they cannot find employees to fill in the available positions. Computers didn’t replace them, there are no computers. The reason no one is taking these jobs is because there are many people who don’t want to work. The US isn’t struggling with lack of jobs, there’s actually plenty of jobs to go around. The problem is, no one wants to work.

Now I can’t tell you what the future holds. Maybe you’re right and AI will end up replacing people or maybe it won’t. I don’t know, but this isn’t a new thing either. People have worried about the future, even a hundred years ago. In that time, they feared that robots, not AI would replace workers. Of course that didn’t happen, but robotics are being used in numerous industries, often taking on critical or dangerous roles. In any event we won’t be here to find out which one of us is right.

Edro

83

Because taxes are a political tool as well as economic tool It will probably never collect what the US spends. The IRS has their funding cut. When they hired additional agents people got all upset and there was talk about armed agents hunting people down. Additionally tax cuts are also promised because both the idea of lowering taxes and keeping the IRS at bay, are popular ideas when running for office. I think the tariffs are a back ally counter for this. Tell everyone that the foreign governments are paying the tariffs not you the consumer. When you say you are cutting taxes to put money back in their pockets you mean the monthly withholding. Great, except when you don’t reduce the annual tax rate so in April you can give back your “savings” in the change in monthly withholdings. 3 times I have had to go to payroll and have additional taxes withheld so April would not be so painful. I have to pay property taxes at about the same time as income taxes.

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84

Given how complex the issues are, can I ask what sector your firm is in, and how specialised these vacant jobs are? We need to eliminate from our calculations those jobs that require specialist education or experience, since they might face a real shortage of available applicants.

At my own place of work we seem to have no problem recruiting for general posts needing only a little experience and knowledge, but we still have some more specialist roles where there is a real shortage of available people, so these need higher salaries to attract (poach!) the right applicants.

I’m not including all those mindless or back-breaking jobs (like crop-picking) that very few folks are able and willing to do for the low wages on offer…

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85

Sometimes the challenge with finding employees is the skill set needed. The way the current system for nursing is arranged, there will always be shortages. Nursing schools enrollments are determined by the number of positions available at nearby hospitals for internships. One of the schools my daughter was looking at had 20 openings in the fall and 20 in the spring for a total yearly opening of 40 students. Talking with the Dean, she said there were about 800 applications per year. They did not accept any freshman students into the program. That’s some rarefied air. She said the problem is nationwide. Instructors often make less than the nurses who work on hospitals so there is less incentive to become an instructor. That combined with limited interning opportunities mean the number of trained nurses graduating from nursing programs can’t meet the demand.

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86

Over here the nursing shortage was compounded a couple years ago by Government greed and stupidity. It used to be that nursing students had their tuition paid as an incentive to get students, but the Gov’t decided it wanted to wriggle out of that expense by making nurses get student loans like everyone else. The obvious result (obvious to everyone but the Gov’t!) was an immediate drop-off in applicants who didn’t want to pay £9k a year…

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87

I just talked a kid into joining the guard today. Seventeen year old kid doing incline presses with 70 pound dumbbells. Going to school in September for CNA. Paying for it himself. I said a guy like you needs to aim higher. Now he might even consider the Army’s PA program. (which is in San Antonio where he plans on going to school) Did I just contribute to the nursing shortage?

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88

I work in a critical data centre as a shift technician, working 12 hour shifts, repairing and operating A/C, generators, UPS systems and carrying out switching of 415V 3phase and 11Kv high voltage switchgear (in the UK) we have had vacancies for two engineers for over a year. The problem is that the job is not for the young or middle aged as they either want to be out partying or at home with their young family but being specialised if you don’t enter in young or middle aged it’s to late to learn the processes. The area in the UK with a high density of data centres has around 40 vacancies for engineers across the different data centres.
Then add to that the data centres also poach engineers including the engineers managers. So there is always a constant change of staff but the actual vacancies never really get filled. Add into that the time taken to train up a new (to that site) engineer to the processes and finding their way around a new site and how the systems operate can take over 6 months and you never stop learning. Normally the more experienced engineer has the ‘honour’ of training the new guy. Never seen a female engineer in our industry not to say they don’t exist.

Why? Mainly now the younger generation are not interested in getting their hands dirty, some don’t even know how to write properly with a pen. We have to be able to operate computers and write reports with a pen. They are more interested in earning a quick buck as a ‘influencer’.

This is an issue for a lot of the skilled jobs that take several years of training to even get your foot on the first rung of the ladder, then it’s the hard slog to make your way up that ladder.

As for AI well that is in data centres as that is where most of the processing is done but it is power hungry and needs a hell of a lot of cooling. In the US there are some new AI data centres being built with small nuclear power plants designed in.

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89

Sure! I am currently a dump truck driver for a construction company. This is not a specialized job, but it does require a CDL license. Although I currently operate a dump truck, I have over 30 years of driving experience, much of it over-the-road. When it comes to truck drivers, there is a massive shortage of drivers nationally. I believe at last count, the industry is short some 60 thousand drivers, including drivers in the construction business. The scary part for my employer is most of our drivers are over 55 yrs old. The age group which requires more doctors visits and expected to retire within the next ten yrs. If younger people don’t apply, it’s possible that the company will not be able to operate. Other industries are experiencing similar problems

Edro

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90

My wife is currently a retired Nurse Practitioner. When she began, she chose nursing because of two factors. First was, it was decent pay, and room to grow. The pay got a whole lot better as she climbed the ladder.
The second was, there’s always going to be a need for nurses. If times got really tough, food and health are the top priority of survival

Now she did have to pay her own way, and it took several years, but once it was paid and she was receiving better pay, she was able to squirrel away money for her retirement, which she is now getting to enjoy.

the thing about nursing is, not everyone can do it and it takes years of education and commitment. But if they can do it, the payoff is worth it in my opinion. In my opinion nurses are the closest thing to an angel on earth, you will ever get to meet.

Edro

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91

The British NHS relies on recruiting from abroad in all sectors, but it can be especially noticeable with nursing staff: locally we have many from the Philippines. I understand that country actually trains many more nurses than it can employ with the intent they will work abroad (and repatriate funds to their families) so it’s not a case of poaching at the expense of another country’s health care system. The only downside (if any) is that if you are an unmarried male patient, however knackered or geriatric, there will be (broad) hints that bachelorhood is not a good lifestyle and she has a female friend/relative you might want to meet…

Cheers,

M

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92

Do you drive the rig with the second trailer or a single bed?

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93

No trailer, just a standard 18yd Mack dump truck.

Edro

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94

OK next question (because I don’t know enough about it) - how tough or expensive is it for young folks to get the training and licenses needed to be truck drivers? I have a vague memory from childhood of ads on TV in New York for truck driver training courses, but never paid them much attention. Start-up cost is a barrier when you’re young and broke! Of course there’s always the Army as a way to get free training - my Dad learned to drive trucks with them in the late 1940s. And there was a time (when I was young and dinosaurs roamed the Earth!) when being a long-haul trucker was a cool aspiration for teenage boys. But with any sector it’s the heady balance of pay, prospects, and difficulty of start-up that determine how attractive the career is - if there’s a shortage then something in that balance is wrong.

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95

600km range is small for a vehicle in Australia. my prado has long range fuel tanks as standard, 800km ish. Brisbane to Sydney is 900km, approx 12 hours driving,so stopping as little as possible unless you’re sightseeing is useful

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96

Wow - I hope you stop to rest and shake off the Highway Hypnosis a few times in that 12-hr drive! 12hrs in any direction in the UK would involve swimming at some point…

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97

Honestly I couldn’t tell you how much it costs to go to truck driving school today. When I went to truck driving school over 30yrs ago, I think I paid about $2000 which was a huge amount for me back then. As for how tough? For me, I didn’t think it was really too tough. I already had some truck driving experience and being fresh out of the Marines, I had a severe case of the can do attitude.

There was another way to acquire a CDL, and that was to hire onto a company which would train you and help you get your CDL so long as you remained an employee for a period of time, and I suspect that still exists.

Now, when I got my Class A, I took an over-the-road job and did that for the next ten years of my life. At that time, the pay was good, and I had very little overhead…until I decided to own my truck. At first it was pretty good, but it was the wrong time. i think it was around 98 (?) the price of fuel spiked at $4/ gal, nationally and I took a tremendous hit and was forced to get rid of the truck and drive someone else’s truck.

I can tell you that trucking isn’t what it used to be and the pay hasn’t kept up. From what I heard, truckers who drove back in the 1970s would tell me, that trucking was pretty lucrative, but a number of factors ruined it over the years. I was driving long haul during the 90s and the money was ok, but when I met my wife, I decided that I wanted to be home more often and took local driving jobs. The pay was worse, but at least I was home every night. I’m currently driving a dump truck for a construction company. For the most part, driving a dump truck is just like operating any other truck, and the job isn’t really any different. You pick up a load, and deliver it. Only difference is what kind of product you’re hauling. In this case, it could be sand, it could be limerock, or millings, or debris. But in a 30 year career, I’ve hauled Barbie dolls, Christmas trees, giant rolls of paper, drywall, etc. And I’ve driven a variety of trucks, Tractor trailers, double trailers, flat bed trailers, box trucks and of course dump trucks. The entire US economy rolls on trucks.

As for truck driving today. I had a brief opportunity to drive another 18 wheeler for a few months about three years ago, and the trucking world has changed immensely in my opinion. Everything is on computer. Truck logs are computerized and report directly to the DOT. The parking issue is worse and the pay sucks when you consider that you’re away from home everyday. I
Im not saying to anyone that driving sucks, I actually love driving, but it’s not a job for everyone. its a job full of really long hours and days you don’t get to see your kids, but it could be lucrative. To anyone who is considering a driving job, find the position that best fits your life, because it will become a part of your life.

Edro

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98

Sounds like your last paragraph explains why there’s a shortage of new drivers! As with other jobs, the pay needs to compensate for the hard work, long hours, and other inconvenience (such as having the computer snitch on you all the time!) or nobody will be attracted to it. Far too many essential service jobs are falling into the trap of lousy pay these days, and we wonder why nobody is lining up to do them.

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I followed a couple truckers on their video postings. They were privately owned trucks. It was interesting to watch them get jobs through brokers and the issues involved with getting a load and delivering it.

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In Northern America, one rumor is that USA’s Target stores didn’t make it in Canada was because the Canadian truckers weren’t on time with their deliveries, having to cross vast stretches of Canada in the cold, storms, ice, snow, hail, etc. and didn’t see the incentive to be on time. Furthermore, perhaps Canada didn’t have the infrastructure for 18-wheelers as stock can be moved by train, but that will take longer.

Trucking was just one issue that goes to show how vital semi-trailers are for logistical needs.

Target’s venture into the Canadian market, which began with high hopes and a rapid expansion, ultimately failed for several key reasons, including:

1. Aggressive Expansion and Supply Chain Issues:

  • Rushed Timeline: Target rapidly opened over 120 stores across Canada, a pace that strained their logistical and operational capabilities.
  • Supply Chain Disruptions: The swift rollout led to issues with their supply chain management system, including problems with data accuracy, inventory tracking, and warehouse operations.
  • Empty Shelves: This mismanagement resulted in empty shelves and inconsistency in product availability, disappointing customers who expected the well-stocked stores they knew from the US.
  • Inefficient Inventory Management: The lack of accurate real-time inventory data prevented stores from effectively meeting customer demand, leading to both overstocking of less popular items and stockouts of sought-after goods. –Google AI
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